Done Deal: Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto

ESPN: JO Traded to Toronto

The Jermaine O’Neal saga of the past few years is finally behind us: the sometimes brilliant, but more often inconsistent in the playoffs or just too injured to play altogether power forward has been traded to the Toronto Raptors for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and the 17th pick of the 2008 NBA Draft. Some are saying that former Pacer Maceo Baston will be send back to Indiana by Toronto as well.

As I’ve posted before, I’m pretty tepid on this trade. I don’t know if the talks behind the proposal for Indiana and Cleveland to exchange JO for Anderson Varejao, Wally Szczerbiak, and the 19th pick, but that is certainly a better deal than what we got today. Varejao is a nice hustle player that would make the aging Jeff Foster expendable. Wally is a great perimeter shooter who would probably play pretty well in Jim O’Brien’s three point-happy offense. But more importantly, he is an expiring contract who could actually contribute quite a decent amount (unlike Rasho) during what I would guess would be a brief stay in Indiana. Basically, the 19th and the 17th pick are a wash. In the Cleveland deal, you get two contributors, salary relief, and a draft pick. With Toronto, you get no guaranteed contributors (given Ford’s injury history), but still get the salary relief and the draft pick. But, the Cleveland trade may have never been on the table, so we’ll have to make do with what we got.

I’m hoping that Ford will be successful with the Pacers, he is fun to watch when healthy, he’s plays hard, and he’s easy to like. From interviews, he also seems like a personable guy. If he succeeds and somehow stays out of trouble with the injuries, he could easily become one of my favorite Pacers. If he’s hurt, he’ll be quite the disappointment.

It’s hard to say what will happen with the 17th pick. Honestly, I haven’t studied who will be around for that pick too closely: only recently has it been apparent the Pacers would pick in the range. I’m guessing now that the Pacers will go with Arthur or possibly Speights at 11, but with Ford in town, Chalmers at 17 (I had predicted the Pacers would pick up Chalmers if they got another pick) looks to be in doubt unless Bird concludes that Deiner is not our best option right now as a backup PG. I think that one way or another, Bird will go big and we’ll have a very young front court next year. Will he go with pure potential in DeAndre Jordan, or will he go for a lower risk player in Roy Hibbert? Robin Lopez may even be an option Bird considers, along with Kosta Kofus. I think Bird will go with one of those four bigs, and that he’ll stay away from JaVale McGee, who seems to be a tier below all those other guys.

It should be a very, very interesting draft night, however.

2008 NBA Pacers Mock Lottery

Here is my 2008 Mock Lottery, showing (in detail) only who I think will be taken before Indiana picks and why. Some teams (ahem, Portland) may be trading their picks, but all of this is assuming that teams stay pat and try to find a good solution to their woes at their assigned draft position.

1.) Chicago Bulls- Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis

Rose has emerged as the consensus #1 pick in the last few weeks. While there are a few character concerns regarding Michael Beasley, Rose is seen by many as an unabashed leader who isn’t afraid of the responsibilities that would come with being a franchise player. He is also not only a great scorer, but a guy who makes everyone around him better and a great defender as well. After an inconsistent season from Kirk Hinrich, Rose will be a welcome change in Chicago.

2.) Miami Heat- Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State

There are a lot of rumbling all throughout the league that the Heat will try and trade this pick for maybe the #3 or #4, seeing that they are really after a great backcourt mate for Dwayne Wade and have some concerns over Beasley’s height and character (he attended something like 6 high schools in 5 years). Beasley has a great array of post moves and that is complemented by an awesome first step that allows him to take just about anyone off the dribble. Because Beasley doesn’t depend on his post game (which he may not be able to utilize against stronger professional players) I think he’ll adjust be being a really effective 3 in the league at least early in his career, and as be builds up strength he’ll be able to post up more. I think he would serve as a nice 3 alongside Shawn Marion at the 4- I just don’t see Udonis Haslem as a long term option at the 4 for Miami now.

3.) Minnesota Timberwolves, OJ Mayo, SG, USC

This is another pick in which I think could be traded for a proven commodity- Minnesota has a lot of young talent. If not, I see the Wolves going with Mayo because he is easily the most talented player in this draft outside of Rose and Beasley. His swagger and ability to hit shots under pressure is something that would be needed in Minnesota. The team already has a pretty good young SG in Rashad McCants, so if this pick goes down, either Mayo or McCants could be traded on draft night.

4.) Seattle Sonics, Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona

Seattle has been “getting by” with mediocre PG’s for a long time, and for Kevin Durant to ever take his team to the promised land, he is going to have to have a steady PG supporting him. Bayless has been slipping on a few draft board recently but I still see Seattle picking him up here, despite the concerns that he isn’t enough of a creator and too much of a “score first” PG. Seattle still needs all the scoring they can get (Durant’s 25 PPG alone won’t get them in the playoffs, ever) and good coaching and mentoring will allow Bayless to temper his game and become more of a distributor when needed.

5.) Memphis Grizzlies, Russell Westbrook, PG/SG, UCLA

Many people have Kevin Love at this pick, which seems like a distinct possibility due to their depleted frontcourt, but the Grizzlies seem to be in extreme money-saving mode and drafting Westbrook will allow them to move Mike Miller’s contract with a little less worry about who will be there to replace him. Westbrook is a great lock down defender who can penetrate strongly to the basket as well. To top that all off, he also has a nice stroke. Many pundits are calling him a more talented Rajon Rondo, while others have him listed as a career SG, either way, he’ll be a good addition to the woeful Grizzlies.

6.) New York Knicks, Eric Gordan, SG, Indiana

New York is in desperate need of a lot of things, but SG ranks at the top of the list in my opinion. Fred Jones just isn’t a viable option as a starting SG (all Pacer fans should know this). New York seems to like Westbrook, but I have him gone by 6, and I think Gordon is a very close second on their draft board. Gordon fizzed out at the end of the year in Indiana amongst all the problems with Kelvin Sampson. Like Westbrook, Gordan has a great combination of excellent penetration skills, a smooth stroke, and good defensive tools (although not as refined as Westbrook). His biggest problem at Indiana was getting overwhelmed and trying to do too much, and in my opinion that is a flaw that Mike D’Antoni will be able to fix once he works him into New York’s system.

7.) LA Clippers, D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas

The Clippers really need a PG, and they’re going to be disappointed with Bayless (who they apparently covet) and Westbrook off of the board by the time they pick. Augustin is the next best thing, he is an ace at creating offense and making a difficult pass. He also has a nice stroke from the perimeter, a quality that is lacking in LA. There are real concerns about his size and his defense, there aren’t too many successful 5′11” PGs in the NBA.

8.) Milwaukee Bucks, Jo Alexander, SF, West Virginia

Kevin Love would be an absolute steal for the Bucks at 8, but Milwaukee is already stacked at the 4 with Charlie V. and more importantly, Yi Jianlian. Joe Alexander is a tough, blue collar kid with a nice shooting touch who should quickly supplant Bobby Simmons as the starting SF, as Simmons has been making a lot of money but not playing too hard for the Bucks.

9.) Charlotte Bobcats, Brook Lopez, C, Stanford

There are tons of questions about any potential upside Lopez may have, but he’s been projected as high as #3 and is thus a steal for the Bobcats here at #9. He’s far from my favorite player even at #9, but with Michael Jordan playing a role in draft pick selection for the Bobcats, I see this pick as very possible. This pick does take some pressure of Emeka Okafur, who they apparently want to move to the 4. Lopez is a tough defender and rebounder, although his offensive potential on the next level is questioned.

10.) New Jersey Nets, Danilo Gallinari, PF, Italy (Foreign)

Sources all over the place are saying that if Gallinari slips this far, the Nets have promised him that they will pick him. Gallinari, like many European players, has a great shooting touch but his athleticism has raised red flags with some teams. Also like many European players, it will take him some time to adjust to the physical nature of the NBA. If he is able to do so, he’ll be fine, but he runs the risk of becoming one dimensional on the offensive side if he doesn’t.

11.) Indiana Pacers, Darrell Arthur, SF/PF, Kansas

I think the Pacers will reach a bit for Arthur here due to their recent penchant for long, athletic players, but then again that always could have been a preference that left with Donnie Walsh. Arthur is a lean, athletic, face up forward who, if he refines and control his ability to drive to the basket and continues to improve his shooting touch, could be an Antwan Jamison type player.

So, Kevin Love is obviously the player I see who will slip in this draft due to conditioning and ceiling concerns, but I see him promptly going to Sacramento at #12. If Portland keeps the #13 pick, I think it’s likely they draft DeAndre Jordan and stash him in the D-League for a couple of years, as they’ve already got a ton of young talent and DeAndre wouldn’t be expected in any way to contribute for them any time soon. At 14 I see the Warriors either adding a needed big in Kosta Kofus or picking up Mario Chalmers to provide a much-needed backup for Baron Davis

Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto?

That’s a possible trade that’s been all over the NBA today. The trade is as follows: Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto for Rasho Nesterovic and T.J. Ford. Nesterovic is an overpaid C who played a reserve role for Toronto last year, and is really only intriguing to the Pacers because of his expiring contract rather than his play. T.J. Ford is an undersized but exciting PG who has been in the league for five years, and was a really fun player to watch for Texas.

Now, if that was all of the information relevant for this trade, I’d be very intrigued. In fact, many Pacer fans and pundits all over the internet seem excited about this deal. Everyone is forgetting about one very important, even crucial, red flag: T.J. Ford has a degenerative spine condition and probably won’t every be able to sustain a full season in the NBA ever again, or even sustain two or three seasons playing 70+ games. Ford missed the entire 04-05 season due to the injury and has missed significant time in other seasons as well.

By all accounts T.J. Ford seems to be a nice guy and a fighter. However, all Pacer fans are aware of what kind of chaos can strike a team when your starting PG is out for long periods of time. I don’t see T.J. Ford as being a long term, healthy option for the Pacers right now. Nesterovic’s expiring contract is far from enough to justify this deal. Some say the Raptor’s 17th pick in the draft might be included, but there’s still no way I even consider this deal unless #17 and another talented player are added in there.

Indiana Pacers 2008 NBA Draft Preview

So, with the lottery long since concluded a week or so ago, the ping pong balls didn’t do much of a service to the Pacers and the team, with the 11th worst record in the league, ended up with the 11th pick in the draft as well. The Pacers are always somewhat of an enigma in the draft, TPTB never seem to pick up the consensus players that the mocks have us taking.

So, for me, that automatically knocks out any chance of the Pacers drafting Russell Westbrook or D.J. Augustin, who, based off of almost any mock draft, are the players we will take. Almost anything could happen in this draft, there are rumors swirling that the Pacers might try to trade down in the first round to pick up Kansas’ Mario Chalmers, something I see as a distinct possibility. Chalmers is by most accounts a great system PG, which plays solid defense and has a pretty good shot, as well. All three are attributes that would be of great value to the Pacers next year. Most people suspect Chalmers to be picked around the 15-20 range, and if he is the Pacers’ man, the team will most likely try to trade down to pick him up.

Assuming we do keep the 11th pick, the prospects are still very intriguing. In a recent interview with Pacers.com Larry Bird said that he is targeting a either a big man or a PG, and that he’s pretty sure that player will be there at 11. He also said he is looking at a player who can “help them right now.” The fact that Larry is looking for an immediate contributor rules out the extremely raw big DeAndre Jordan, and his seeming concentration on a big or a PG rules out guys like Joe Alexander, Donte Green, and Danillo Gallinari as his primary target, as all of those guys are swingmen (of which the Pacers have stockpiled).

Seeing that I think the Pacers will follow history by not following conventional wisdom regarding their draft pick, and that they won’t draft a swingman (unless some unpredictable trade is in the works), I look at the Pacers drafting either Maresse Speights or Darrell Arthur if they stay pat at 11. If a player like Eric Gordan or even Brook Lopez slips, the Pacers may go that route, but either or those players slipping all the way to 11 seems like a stretch.

So, that leaves us with Speights or Arthur. Speights is a 6′10” 245 PF/C from Florida who is known by scouts as being a good post up player who already has a nice arsenal of moves for a college kid, who also can rebound pretty well. However, he has a few character issues and a low basketball IQ. He’s been compared to Elton Brand. Arthur is a shorter, slimmer (6′9”, 225) player from Kansas who is known for ability to run the floor. He also has a great mid range jumper and a decent post game of his own. He needs to develop his body a bit more so that he can hit the glass against some of the bigger guys in the NBA.

I think both Speights and Arthur are great prospects, either of which the Pacers would be happy with. I tend to favor Speights, because of his NBA ready body, but I believe, if given the opportunity to go with one or the other, Bird would go with Arthur. In the past LB has shown a predilection toward athletic players with a high ceiling, something of which Arthur is much more than Speights. Arthur also seems to have much better character than Speights, who, based off his interviews, doesn’t seem like a guy who would interact well with fans. Arthur is the more marketable, more athletic guy with a bigger upside. I think that will lead LB to draft Darrell Arthur if we stand pat at 11.

I also believe it is very possible that the Pacers may avoid Speights and Arthur altogether and trade down to draft PG Mario Chalmers in the mid first round. I like Chalmers’ chances in the league because he is much larger than Augustin (6′2” vs. 5′11”) and won’t be such a liability on defense. Chalmers isn’t the creator Augustin is, but he is still a solid system PG with a nice shooting touch. If our coaching staff could improve his full court vision and teach him to make a fancy pass or two once in awhile, he could turn into a solid starting PG for the future for Indiana. The biggest obstacle to Chalmers becoming a Pacer is whether or not we kind find a taker to trade down in the draft.

So I think are chance in the draft are the following:

Darrell Arthur: 40%

Mareese Speights: 25%

Find a trade to draft Mario Chalmers: 25%

Draft an even more highly touted player who somehow slips in the draft: 10%

Things to come regarding this blog

1.) My NBA Draft preview- who I think the Pacers (and all other teams with a first round pick) will pick up in the ‘08 Draft (it may surprise you).

2.) A Draft recap which will, of course, follow the draft.

3.) Profiling some possible trades that may take occur this offseason.

4.) My expectations for each player on our roster next season.

Oh, and a little bit about myself. I am a 22 year old dedicated fan of the Pacers living in Washington, D.C. So dedicated that I hope to one day return back home to Indiana and be a Pacers season ticket holder. For now, though I’ll have to survive with League Pass. My family has had season tickets for as long as I can remember, and I grew up in an Indianapolis where the Pacers, rather than the Colts, were the kings of the city. Rather than just move on the to next hot thing in town, I’ve stuck it out with the Pacers during what have become some of this franchise’s darker days in history (save the 1980’s and early 1990’s), but I’m determined to stick it out. I am very new to blogging and am hoping that this blog sticks and gains a bit of readership along the way! This blog won’t be as thorough as, say, Indy Cornrows which is indisputably the best Pacers blog on the internet (sorry, Mike Wells), but my goal is to make this a very respectable blog if nothing else.

While I’m talking about other Pacers media on the internet, everyone please be sure to check out Pacers Digest, the king of Indiana Pacers message boards. I post on the board under the name “dcpacersfan” and will continue to post and check it out to get the scoop on the latest Pacers news.

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